DWN; Mächtigste Bank der Welt warnt zum dritten Mal vor einem Crash.

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 DWN: Mächtigste Bank der Welt warnt zum dritten Mal vor einem Crash

Die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich (BIZ) warnt zum dritten Mal innerhalb kurzer Zeit vor einem Crash an den Finanzmärkten. Beobachter sind sich nicht ganz klar, was das bedeutet: Entweder der Crash kommt nun mit biblischer Sicherheit (“und abermals krähete der Hahn”), oder die BIZ liegt falsch. Auch das wäre keine vertrauenerweckende Erkenntnis.

Also kommt der Crash bald.


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4 reacties op DWN; Mächtigste Bank der Welt warnt zum dritten Mal vor einem Crash.

  1. Chef-Ökonom der Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich (BIZ) Borio: Während an den Finanzmärkten bis vor kurzem hohe Risiken eingegangen worden sind, ist in der Realwirtschaft das Gegenteil zu beobachten.“ Manager hätten billiges Geld lieber für Übernahmen und Aktienrückkäufe genutzt als zu investieren. „Das ist ein klares Signal, dass etwas schiefläuft“

    Wat Borio stelt komt overeen met deze analyse van professor of economics Michael Hudson van 4 dagen geleden:

    PERIES: Michael, only thing that held up yesterday were some of the transportation stocks. Why is that? And also explained to me–you wrote to me saying 91 percent of the S&P 500 earnings are spent on stock buybacks and dividends. What does that mean?

    HUDSON: Well, in 2008 the Federal Reserve here and the central bank in Europe lowered interest rates way down to almost nothing. It’s one-tenth of a percent in the United States. That means that banks can borrow from the Fed to make loans. And what they’ve been lending for are for corporate takeovers and for stock buybacks. In the stock market in the last year, one-third of all of the stock transactions in the United States are stock buybacks. That means corporations are using–the S&P 500 have used, I think, 54 percent of their earnings to buy back their own stock, and they’ve been using another 40 percent or so to pay dividends. Now, that has left only 9 percent of earnings of the S&P 500 available for new investment. Never before has this ratio been so low.
    Most companies use their earnings to reinvest. They expand. They try to earn more by investing more to produce more to make more profits to keep on growing. But that hasn’t been occurring at all. They’ve been using their earnings basically to give stock options to the managers. The manager say, okay, I’m paid according to how much I can increase the price of the stock. I’m not going to use my corporate earnings of IBM or General Motors or whatever, I’m not going to use these to build more plant, ‘cause then I’m going to use it to push up the stock so I’m going to get more in my stock option. And you have activist stockholders such as have been raiding Apple and other companies, like Carl Icahn, that have been pressing Apple and others to actually borrow not to invest as the textbooks say, but to buy back their own stocks. So you have companies that are actually going into debt to buy their own stock.

    Now, the low interest rates that in economic theory are supposed to make it more profitable for companies to invest and employ more labor and grow are having just the opposite effect. The low interest rates are creating a new stock market bubble, which is why the stock market has gone up so much since 2008. But this rising stock market bubble has only been in the price of the stock. It’s stocks going up without any new capital investment, without any new hiring, and, in fact, with downsizing and outsourcing. So they’ve turned the traditional textbook model of economic recovery inside out.

    Why Are Stock Markets So Volatile?
    http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=12533

    Over hoe dit alles mogelijk is, maakt financieel expert Willem Middelkoop na 3:00 in ‘financiële elite bepaalt politieke agenda’ een paar goede opmerkingen: http://youtu.be/_ihMDkKZWuA

    In dit licht blijft ‘vlot trekken van de economie’ (via ‘austerity’) vanuit Den Haag en andere regeringssteden natuurlijk kletskoek. Zeker een Halbe Zijlstra probeert al jaren met hele en halve leugens elke verbetering van verrot financieel systeem de kop in te drukken.

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