12 september.

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In augustus zitten de money boys in het zonnetje en zijn de volumes zeer laag. Misschien dat er iets onverwachts opduikt, om de markt op te laten schrikken, maar de kans is klein.

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Onder voorbehoud zal Duitsland toestemmen met het ESM. Waarschijnlijk zal er bij grote bedragen een Duitse toestemming van het parlement nodig zijn. Als er vervolgens een verzoek komt voor een nieuwe grote ESM bijdrage, dan  zal een Duits referendum opgezet gaan worden. Het volk zal door de media propaganda tegen gaan stemmen en het ESM wegstemmen. Deze volgorde lijkt aannemelijk, maar je weet maar nooit.

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Leuker; binnen 15 dagen na 12 september moeten de landen hun ESM bijdrage overmaken!

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Zijn de PIGGS landen dit vergeten?

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Hebben ze dat geld wel klaar liggen? Begrijpen ze wel dat ze moeten dokken voor hun eigen bailout?

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De bijdragen van Spanje is 90 miljard.

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Waarvan? Met plakken wortels?

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Of wacht eens even… Wil Spanje die 90 miljard lenen via een omweg lenen bij het ESM?

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Er klopt iets niet, want Spanje en Italie hebben dat geld voor hun eigen bail-out niet klaar liggen. Je hoort hier niemand over tenminste.

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September:

  • September: Moody’s due to conclude review of Spanish sovereign rating. Logically Moody’s should wait until there is clarity on direct recap before making a decision on Spain’s rating. Since governments have not made progress fleshing out a direct recapitalisation facility — indeed, have created some ambiguity as to whether it will be non-recourse— there is a distinct risk that Moody’s, in another move to be “ahead of the curve”, decides to downgrade Spain within the next 3 months. Moody’s currently rates Spain Baa3, the lowest investment grade rating.
  • September: Detailed bottom-up Spanish bank stress tests due for publication.
  • 6 September: Spain auction. Bonds
  • 6 September: ECB Governing Council meeting. The markets will be hoping for clarity on the modalities of the new bond purchasing  scheme as well as how the ECB intends to address the seniority question. The new ECB staff forecasts will be released. There is a strong chance of the GDP growth forecasts being revised down, giving the ECB a basis to cut interest rates. We expect a 25bp refi rate cut, but assuming the ‘quantitative’ arrangements announced on 2 August materialise, there may be less pressure on the ECB to consider a negative deposit rate.
  • 11 September: Greece auction. Bills
  • 12 September: German Constitutional Court ESM ruling. The German Constitutional Court is to rule on the complaints lodged against the ESM and fiscal compact. The chances of the ESM being vetoed are low. However, the Court might again strengthen the German Parliament’s prerogatives as regards future European integration (see Focus Germany, 20 July). Germany is the last approval needed for the ESM tocome into effect. Then the first instalment of the capital has to be paid by the ESM members within 15 days of the ESM treaty entering into force. There are three other countries where Constitutional Court queries are outstanding — France, Austria and Ireland. France’s Constitutional Court will be deciding by mid-August. Neither Austria (which may take another 3-6 months) nor Ireland are large enough to hold back the ESM — the ESM will come into force when countries representing 90% of the subscribed capital have approved it. Both Germany and Francehave an effective veto power in that case.
  • 12 September: Dutch Election. In April, the VVD/CDA minority government failed when Geert Wilders’ PVV party withdrew its support amid negotiations for the 2013  austerity budget. A crisis was averted when three smaller parties came forward to give support to a budget, but an early election was unavoidable. Domestic austerity and European crisis issues will likely play important roles in the election. Opinion polls point to the antiausterity Socialist Party now being the most popular party in the Netherlands. Unlike France, Dutch politics remains fragmented. Despite the support, there is no guarantee the Socialists will end up in power. Nevertheless, the success of the Socialists’ ‘antiausterity’ message could influence Dutch policymaking in general. The Queen has an amount of discretion in choosing who to offer the mandate for rule. The trouble is, none of the ‘standard’ coalition combinations currently secures a majority. Forming a new government could take time, measured in months. In the meantime the outgoing (minority) government remains responsible for policy. The danger is this might impede Europe’s ability to achieve real progress on integration in the latter stages of 2011.
     
  • 12 September: Italy auction. Bills
  • 13-14 September: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers meeting. In Mexico.
  • 13 September: Italy auction. Bonds
  • 14-15 September: Eurogroup/ECOFIN meetings. This is very likely the finance ministers meeting when adjustments to Greece’s second loan programme will be considered. The remaining EUR23bn recapitalisation of the Greek banks is due to complete by the end of September, assuming a positive review of the loan programme. This is also when finance ministers should have their first discussion on the proposals for a common bank supervisory regime under the ECB. Any delays, with knock-on delays for a direct bank recapitalisation mechanism, will disappoint the market. Options for a reconsideration of Ireland’s legacy bank bailout policies may also be discussed (decision not due until October ECOFIN meeting).
  • 18 September: Greece auction. Bills
  • 18 September: Spain auction. Bills
  • 20 September: Spain auction. Bonds
  • 25 September: Spain auction. Bills
  • 25 September: Italy auction. Bonds
  • 26 September: Italy auction. Bills
  • 27 September: Italy auction. Bonds
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2 reacties op 12 september.

  1. King Billy zegt:

    Fraai overzicht van het tijdpad. ’t Wordt een hete herfst. Koel houden met de waterkanonnen. Want het wapenarsenaal van de ECB en het ESM is, eenmaal afgeschoten, nog slechts de schrootprijs waard.

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